NBB Working Paper, 2024, 468: The impact of climate transition policies on Belgian firms. What can we learn from a survey?

This paper examines the impact of current and future climate transition policies on Belgian firms as they approach the 2030 milestone set by the European Green Deal. Using data from an online survey conducted with members of key Belgian employers’ federations, we assess the effects on firms’ costs, pricing, demand, and investment decisions. The climate transition is largely perceived as a classical negative supply shock, resulting in higher prices, squeezed profit m…

This paper examines the impact of current and future climate transition policies on Belgian firms as they approach the 2030 milestone set by the European Green Deal. Using data from an online survey conducted with members of key Belgian employers’ federations, we assess the effects on firms’ costs, pricing, demand, and investment decisions. The climate transition is largely perceived as a classical negative supply shock, resulting in higher prices, squeezed profit margins, and reduced activity. While the impact on Belgian investment remains ambiguous, part of production capacity – particularly in manufacturing – is expected to shift outside the EU. A scenario analysis and an information experiment embedded within the survey show that an increase in the carbon price beyond firms’ current expectations could exacerbate these adverse effects. Survey participants also express widespread scepticism about the EU's ability to meet its ‘Fit for 55’ targets, citing high costs, reduced profitability, unclear policy guidance and administrative burdens as major impediments.